Saturday, January 19, 2013
The Long and Winding Gold- (Bull Cycle about to Begin)
David Banister – www.TheMarketTrendForecast.com
The dramatic 2-3 day take down in Gold Spot pricing action smells and looks like capitulation to us at The Market Trend Forecast. We have been calling this entire 19-20 month consolidation period as a Primary wave 4 correction pattern, though complicated for sure. It has had multiple false rallies and buy and sell signals the entire time. With that said, the pattern is set up for final 5th wave decline which we are seeing now at the beginning of April.
Traditionally, Gold tends to meander or be weak in April anyways on a seasonal basis. This sets Gold up to rally in May into July with another soft patch, followed by a fall rally. However, our technical analysis is predicated on our Elliott Wave analysis, which says this entire 20 month correction is a “Double Three” correction pattern. Essentially its two ABC patterns with an “X” Wave rally in the middle to really confuse everyone.
The X wave took Gold to 1800 last fall before dumping all the Bulls off and eventually working its way down to the 1540’s levels we see today. This last leg down is a 5 wave decline and you know you’re at the bottom of wave 5 when everyone throws in the towel, the Gold stocks trade at multi year lows and relative valuation extremes. We also have insiders buying 7 to 1 over sellers according to Ink Research in the Gold stock sector. Stocks are valued at $923 per ounce equivalent even though Gold is trading north of $1,500 per ounce still.
We say bring it on and are actively accumulating selected Gold stocks with production profiles and growth metrics that are attractive.
See the Gold Elliott Wave analysis chart we sent to our paying subscribers a few days ago to forewarn of one more leg down. The next rally should be a doozy and have very few people on board. We would simply caution that a drop below $1523 spot pricing could lead to a blast down to the 1440-1460 areas, but its unlikely in our current views.
Natural gas has been holding up well the past two sessions and looks as though it is forming a cup and handle pattern at the $3.40 level. The first upside target would be $3.50 then $3.60.
Crude oil has been trading sideways/higher the past week but the on balance volume clearly shows sellers are unloading contracts at the $94 level. Yesterday I talked about how crude oil was walking a fine line up its support trend line and once that breaks look out! Price is holding up but be aware it could drop fast and hard any day here.
Gold and silver traded higher yesterday while the miners lagged. This is not a bullish sign for the metals. The trend remains down and we need a clean break before getting long.
Bonds continue to their march higher as expected and this type of price action points to lower stock prices. This morning stocks are set to gap sharply lower confirming money is rolling back into the safe haven (bonds) for protection from falling share prices.